Can’t See the Forest for the Trees

Late Friday, the news came out that General Maritime had successfully priced its 144a private placement of $300 million of senior unsecured notes due in 2017. Like the NCL deal that was competing with it, the Genmar bonds were priced in a soft and volatile stock market. Rated B3/B, the notes, with a 12% coupon, were priced at 97.512% to yield 12.5%, a spread of 922 bps over like term Treasuries.

Market noise suggested it was a hard sell, that buyers had issues with the dividend and covenants and, finally that it was expensive. But was it really? While it does look expensive when compared to the NCL and Navios’ offerings, one must not forget that this was done on an unsecured basis. And, although the premium for unsecured was perhaps higher than they anticipated, the company got what it wanted – quasi-equity. The bond provides the cushion that the banks were looking for. And while the $36 million in interest cost is expensive, the impact of that amount, if it had instead been income, appears less costly on an EPS basis based upon a new hypothetical share count (currently 57.9 million shares) which would have included an incremental +/- 33 million shares at $7, that would have had to been issued to meet the minimum requirement of its banks.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, The Week in Review | November 12th, 2009 | Add a Comment

All Eyes Are On Genmar

We know that General Maritime’s dynamic duo, Messrs Georgiopoulos and Pribor are on the road marketing their $300 million senior unsecured notes offering due in 2017 and so, while they are busy selling we thought we would take a read of the high yield market.

Earlier this week, Navios Maritime Holdings closed its successful $400 million private offering of first priority ship mortgage notes due in 2017. Rated BB-/Ba3, the coupon on the notes was 8.875% and was priced to yield 9.125%. The company escrowed $105 million of the proceeds to provide additional financing to complete the purchase of two new vessels with the balance used to repay existing credit facilities.
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Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, The Week in Review | November 5th, 2009 | Add a Comment

The Not So Invisible Hand

In the midst of its 3rd quarter earnings report, General Maritime disclosed that it had entered into a broad amendment of its 2005 credit facility led by Nordea this week. It would appear based upon these disclosures, that the banks are perhaps becoming more proactive in protecting their interests. The time of waiting and seeing what will happen has passed. Simple waivers, if this is an indicator of future trends, will not be granted. Amendments will require reduction of exposure, tighter covenants, and higher costs. But it is the quid pro quo for the amendment that makes this one particularly interesting. The amendment is contingent upon a re-capitalization of the balance sheet through the offering of non-amortizing senior unsecured notes (but with subsidiary guarantees) with a minimum term of five years. The offering must be consummated by November 30th and provide at a minimum net proceeds of $230 million.
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Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, The Week in Review | October 29th, 2009 | Add a Comment

Managing Expectations

By their nature all public companies are focused on their shareholders, but General Maritime’s behavior, at times, seems compulsive. And that is a good thing. Back in 2007, the company recapitalized itself, adding debt so it could pay out a special dividend of $11.19 (adjusted) per share, when there were no opportunities that met the company’s investment criteria. To management, it was appropriate to return the capital to the shareholder.

Today the world is different. The tanker market has weakened straining cash flows on one hand but offering up investment opportunities on the other. In response, management has changed the dividend policy to pay out a fixed annual dividend of $0.50 per share, which is a visible and consistent payout supported by Genmar’s current contracted revenue stream. Jeff Pribor, Chief Financial Officer, commented, “… The adoption of our new dividend target is the result of our Board’s voluntary reassessment of our dividend policy based on current market conditions. We believe it will enable General Maritime to continue its tradition of distributing cash to shareholders during a challenging market environment. By implementing a more conservative payout ratio, we believe we have also strengthened our financial flexibility to enter into future value creating transactions and take advantage of strategic growth opportunities…”

Here, too, credibility goes a long way.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, The Week in Review | August 6th, 2009 | Add a Comment

Not to Be Missed

Despite the difficult environment, a veritable who’s who of the shipping community descended on the Jefferies 5th Annual Shipping, Logistics & Offshore Services Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We must confess that walking in at the uncivilized hour of 8 AM to a sparse crowd and seeing Jefferies Magic Eight Balls gave us pause. Was Hamish making a market statement or was he merely giving investors a new forecasting tool? Our conclusion was probably both.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, Market Commentary | September 18th, 2008 | Add a Comment

Capital Market Strength Makes Winners all around in ATB GMR Transaction

In a market in which issuing new equity at or above net asset value is nearly impossible, and at a time when high payout shipping companies are struggling to grow, General Maritime’s all stock acquistion of Arlington Tankers not only makes perfect economic sense – the cashless and symbiotic nature of the deal is probably a blueprint for a few more transactions to come.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, The Week in Review | August 7th, 2008 | Add a Comment

BUY! BUY! BUY! Results to Please Just About Anyone

It’s been earnings season the past two weeks and if there were ever a question about whether shipping could avoid a hit due to the sub- prime crisis, well, this should answer it.

For fun, here are a few analyst comments on recent returns… From Dahlman Rose:

Dahlman/Eagle Bulk Shipping – 1Q Operating Results Stronger Than Expected; In Solid Position to Re-Charter Vessels as Rates Continue Pushing Higher

We believe Eagle’s aggressive approach to re-chartering its vessels will payoff as the market has exceeded our expectations. During the past few weeks we have seen several long-term time fixtures as charterers look to secure vessels in the face of a rising market. We maintain our Buy rating and $33/share target, based on a 10% 2009 CF yield, ahead of the earnings call this morning.

Eagle’s share price jumped more than 10% following their conference call!

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: 1Q08 Earnings Special, Freshly Minted | May 8th, 2008 | Add a Comment

Betting on Tankers

Last week it was dry bulk. This week, all the fuss seems to be revolving around the tanker market. A Wall Street Journal “Money & Investing” section cover story on the popularity of shorting tanker stocks drew some attention. As did a bearish report from R.S. Platou, a much-talked-about, products-focused IPO from Aries Maritime, positive reports form Jefferies and Banc of America and tanker stock coverage initiations from First Albany. So what, exactly, are the arguments going around, and of what should tanker market players and their financiers be aware? It’s still impossible to predict the future, but we can tell you what some of the competing arguments are.

R.S. Platou analyst Erik Andersen drew a lot of attention with his bearish report on shipping, particularly tankers. According to Mr. Andersen, the seasonality justification for low spot rates – which brokers say have dropped into the upper teens for VLCCs on some routes – is badly overblown. He notes that from 1997-2004, the average second quarter rate was about 37.5% lower than the average fourth quarter rate, completely out of order with the drop in rates from $147,000 in the fourth quarter of 2004 to $41,000 so far in the second quarter of 2005. However, this is still above the 8-year average second quarter rate of $35,000 – albeit with higher bunker prices – suggesting that perhaps the $147,000 was more of an anomaly than the $41,000 is a sign of a crash. Still, tanker fleet annualized growth figures of 6-7% compared to a comparable rate of 1% annually over the decade from 1993-2003 are somewhat ominous. Citigroup Smith Barney analyst Charles de Trenck noted how the current weak rates are making the tanker market the first among the shipping sectors to experience the pricing pressures derived from growing capacity. But on the bright side, Mr. Andersen did write that he does not believe tanker markets will weaken so much as to create a weak year for owners.

Analysts Magnus Fyhr and Douglas Mavrinac at Jefferies & Company have a much different take on the current market situation. They said in a report issued to reiterate their buy rating on Ship Finance International that they expect tanker demand to be firm on increasing OPEC production. Importantly, the analysts believe that incremental fleet growth of 21 MMdwt scheduled through the end of the year is likely to be absorbed by increased tanker demand.

Evincing similarly positive sentiments, analysts Daniel Barcelo, Philippe Lanier and Pierre Sargeant of Banc of America Securities issued a report on oil tankers optimistically titled “Hold On for the Summer Heat.” They note that a 5% tanker stock pullback over the past two weeks has been related more to Arabian Gulf VLCC market conditions than to the tanker industry as a whole, much of which has remained fairly strong. Additionally, they point out that the 450 vessel global VLCC fleet has grown by only two vessels so far in 2005, implying that softened rates could not be explained by supply buildup, but rather are a product of a reduction in Arabian Gulf export volume and a temporary buildup of available tonnage in the gulf. Analyst Craig Irwin of First Albany appears to agree, having this week initiated coverage on General Maritime, OMI and Arlington Tankers with a Buy rating. And a group of Asian investors that market sources say recently put their money into a very expensive $140 million VLCC newbuilding have put their money where their mouth is when it comes to predicting a strong VLCC market for years to come.

Much of Wall Street, however, seems to have sided with R.S. Platou on the more bearish side of the debate, as a widely disseminated article titled “Shorts Expect Tankers to Take On More Water” strongly suggests. Teekay, OMI, Knightsbridge and General Maritime are all being subjected to this phenomenon, with Frontline leading the pack. Investors are brazenly betting that tanker stocks will keep falling. Whether or not this will happen is hard to tell, though the practice certainly is not encouraging for those hoping to see their tanker investments appreciate.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, Market Commentary | June 2nd, 2005 | Add a Comment

Fyhr & Mavrinac Initiate Diana, Bullish on Arlington

Jefferies analysts Magnus Fyhr and Douglas Mavrinac continued to expand their comprehensive shipping sector coverage with the initiation of coverage on Diana Shipping with a Buy rating and a $21 price target. The analysts note that Diana operates a modern dry bulk fleet while dry bulk fundamentals remain attractive. The company has a strong balance sheet that is readily available to support future growth, and it has announced a policy to pay out all free cash as dividends, a policy which is supported by Diana’s timecharter strategy.

The analysts also reiterated this week their Buy rating for Arlington Tankers, with a target price of $25.00, though the report also reduces EPS estimates based on lowered charter rate expectations. One thing that both these Buy ratings have in common is a notable dividend yield. Calculating the value of near-term returns, dividend yields mean a lot to analysts, but how much do they mean to equity investors?

General Maritime’s recent inauguration of a considerable dividend policy gives us a rare venue to test the hypothesis that higher dividends translate into higher share prices. The accompanying graph comparing General Maritime’s share price evolution, starting in the beginning of January and going through the period when the company announced its new dividend policy, to that of Frontline.

Written by: marinemoney | Categories: Freshly Minted, Market Commentary | April 28th, 2005 | Add a Comment

Early Earnings Solid, Led by the Newly Public

The first round of 2005 earnings has come in, and the results are solid overall. While tanker companies General Maritime and Teekay did not see revenues quite as strong as 1Q04, the results were certainly nothing at which to balk. OMI, International Shipholding and Kirby all posted increases across the board, with OMI’s results particularly strong, and consistent in the revenue, net income and EBITDA categories, as shown in the accompanying table. The real over-performers so far, not surprisingly, were the companies who have gone public and expanded their fleets substantially in the past year. DryShips saw revenue, net income and EBITDA all increase by more than 70% based on 1Q04, while Top Tankers saw returns more than quintuple in each of these three categories.