2007

Surgeon General’s Warning

In a world where investors are betting on China’s continually growing GDP, with its concomitant need for commodities, and forecasters assuring them it is inevitable, we welcomed this pithy warning about forecasting and event risk from Natasha Boyden of Cantor Fitzgerald:

“While analysis of commodity supply and demand factors can help provide near-term guidance, market conditions are difficult to predict and single events often affect the price, demand, production, and transport of commodities. As such, dry bulk rates can fluctuate dramatically over short periods of time.”

Like the warning on cigarettes, this reminder should be well placed as a reality check for the industry and its prognosticators. But like the Surgeon General’s warning, it will likely be ignored with a plea of addiction.

This is only an excerpt of Market Commentary – 05/10/2007

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